Tours d’horizon are all the rage at the start of a new year. January inevitably brings a host of soothsayers, doom-mongers and assorted pundits peddling predictions for the year ahead. These range from statistics on potential growth and decline to ‘listicles’ of what’s hot and what’s not.

 

The former (statistical predictions) are scientific only in that they tend to be straight-line, but unwarrantable, extrapolations of last year’s trend; whereas the latter (‘listicles’) are invariably down-the-pub, back-of-an-envelope imaginings, based on about as much evidence as a North Korean court conviction. In other words, both are questionable. This is simply because, to quote Nobel prize-winning physicist Nils Bohr, "prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." Nor, however, are they always wildly wrong, especially when written by experienced trend-watchers and travel gurus.

 

So, in the interest of what we hope might pass for informed entertainment, we’ve dusted off the Yellow Railroad crystal ball and come up with a few predictions about the world in 2019. These are based on a modicum of evidence, years of experience, and pure conjecture. This is neither comprehensive nor restricted to the big guns. It looks at new kids on the block as well as established destinations. 

 

What’s most interesting is probably why the new kids are emerging. What’s driving their growth? Who’s finding them appealing after being under the radar for so many years, and why? Like any tourism consultant worth his/her salt, we try to answer some of these questions……..But we may be wrong. After all, it is still January. 

 

Just-published UNWTO* arrivals figures reveal last year’s winners, losers, and a few surprises: 

 

Return to Form after Troubled Times: Four tourism-reliant countries that have not had their troubles to seek, as a result of terrorist attacks or natural disaster in recent years, are bouncing back. Egypt (+c.42%), Turkey (+c.23%), Tunisia (+c.18%) and Nepal (+c.23%) all recorded significant growth in 2018. This demonstrates the resilience of tourism and such a relatively swift bounce-back is encouraging. Sun, culture and adventure are evergreen appeals.

 

As long as they remain relatively stable and experience no further major terrorism incidents in 2019, these destinations should maintain a robust growth trajectory, albeit probably at a slower rate than in 2018. Turkey is perhaps more volatile. Things may change, depending on how President Erdogan reacts to the Kurdish population both in Turkey and, perhaps more worryingly, across the border after the USA pulls its troops out of Syria. An aggressive response, which might reignite Kurdish activity against Turkey, would reverse last year’s tourism growth.

 

Steady as They Go: Established, less volatile destinations are trucking along at single figure growth rates: Mexico, the Netherlands and Croatia are keeping pace with the world average (+c.6% growth in 2018); while Singapore, Japan, Thailand, Kenya and Morocco are ticking over a few percentage points faster than the world average (+c.7-9%). 

 

There is little reason to suspect these popular, solid destinations will experience dramatic swings either way to knock them off their steady growth path in 2019; although sporadic Al-Shabaab activity is an ongoing concern for Kenya. Odds at the January weigh-in suggest modest to above-average growth looks like continuing for these countries in 2019.

 

Big Winners and Losers: While the fortunes of the big beasts of international tourism fluctuated, all of the top 5 with over 50 million visitors posted at least some growth: France (+c.8%), Spain (+c.1%), USA (+c.7%), China (+c.2%) and Italy (+c.5%).

 

But the most sluggish performers amongst established destinations were China and South Africa (+c.2%), Spain (+c.1%) and the UK with a startling deficit at c. minus 5%. The UK’s poor performance relative to the others is astonishing, particularly given sterling’s weakening against the Euro since the Brexit vote in 2016, albeit with intermittent volatility. Reasons are opaque, although some are rushing to blame Brexit. Other variables, which might affect the UK’s performance, are not immediately obvious, but there is, as yet, no conclusive evidence of a Brexit link.

 

Although South America (+c.3%) is running at half the world average growth rate, three countries are booming: Ecuador (+c.51%), Colombia (+c.30%) and Peru (+c.22%) are leading the pack, followed by Guyana (+c.18%). But, after reaching record visitor numbers in 2017 (c.6.5 million), Chile has declined significantly (minus c.10%). These South American countries' recent popularity is reminiscent of South East Asia’s early boom years. While more traditionally dependent on US travellers, growing awareness amongst Europeans in recent years of this continent’s heady mix of cultural diversity, scenic grandeur, variety of flora and fauna, wide range of adventure activities, and the growing popularity of award-winning Peruvian cuisine, has put South America on the European traveller’s map. The appetite to discover more of this kaleidoscopic continent is likely to continue to grow and spread to other countries within the continent.

 

No stranger to natural disaster, some of 2018’s biggest drops occurred in the Caribbean: St Maarten (minus c.69%), British Virgin Islands (minus c.55%), Puerto Rico (minus c.41%), US Virgin Islands and Anguilla (minus c.38%), and Dominica (minus c. 33%). This reflects devastation over the last couple of years from some of the worst hurricanes these islands have ever experienced. This is tough for such a tourism-dependent region. But the Caribbean is nothing if not resilient. 2019 should see visitors begin returning to islands across the Caribbean – not so much because memories are short as because massive recovery efforts and regular communications on progress will reassure people the Caribbean is open for business.

 

This is where the lengthy odds lie – amongst last year’s big winners and losers. Will these rather surprising trends continue? Or will the pendulum swing back closer to world average growth rates for these destinations?  

 

Political turmoil in Italy might further dampen growth; France and Spain may take a hit from their biggest market, the UK, as Brexit begins to bite and Brits pull their horns in; and it is hard to imagine Greece will continue to outperform European growth so convincingly. Subject to what happens to its huge UK market, Malta could either remain a hardy perennial or share a hit with France, Spain and, possibly, Greece.

 

There are no signs the South East Asian miracle will abate. But it seems unlikely that China will share the bonanza other Asian destinations are experiencing. The cracks that have begun to appear in the Chinese economy, exacerbated by the US-China trade war, will have most impact on the outbound Chinese market. But it is hard to believe this will not also affect inbound tourism to China. South America probably still has several years of rapid growth ahead before reaching a plateau. And demand for the Caribbean will gradually return as messages about its recovery hit home. But the ones to watch will be the new kids on the block in Central Asia, the Balkans and South America (see below). They may not be big but, as erstwhile outsiders, they will add spice to the competition for adventurous travellers.

 

But perhaps the biggest imponderable is how the UK will fare. As the post-Brexit landscape becomes clearer, will there be greater certainty? Will sterling strengthen and thereby make the UK more expensive? Or will it drop and make the country more affordable? And will attitudes harden against Britain, as Europeans find less common cause with their estranged partner and European media reflect this in wider negative coverage of UK-European niggles, from resettlement rejections to trading difficulties? And, having slipped from 33rd easiest place to make friends in 2016 to 49th in 2018**, will the UK be able to persuade people it is still as welcoming as it used to be? 

 

It’s easy to forget how resilient tourism is. Most destinations grew last year and the focus, including in this blog, tends to be on differential growth rates, rather than growth versus decline. When places like Vietnam grow at almost 20%, it’s almost hard not to see Italy’s growth at +c.5% as negative. Even at +c.2%, China’s story is positive. 

 

But it’s important to compare apples with apples. It’s much more instructive to assess destinations’ performance against their regional competitors than across continents. It's not particularly illuminating to compare long-established destinations in Europe with Asian destinations in their second boom of youth; and vice versa, any significant variation between different Asian destinations’ performance is more enlightening than between Asian and African or European destinations. In this context, allowing for statistical confidence errors, the UK’s 5% drop might not be as bad as it looks……..hopefully! 

 

You might be forgiven for thinking that, in this tourism-saturated world, there would be few ‘new’ destinations left. In 1923 Joseph Conrad declared “the days of heroic travel are gone”. But look what’s happened since then. So, which destinations might explode on to the scene in 2019 or enjoy disproportionate growth, and why?

 

Less Dabble, More Depth: A search for ‘undiscovered’ places, cultural authenticity, a thirst for adventure, and intriguing cuisine will drive demand for ‘new’ destinations. This means less of a surface-scratching, ‘if-it’s-Tuesday-it-must-be-Belgium’, approach to travel and more time spent exploring behind the scenes of a place: less dabble, more depth. This isn’t new; but the dial will be turned up on finding the different, hidden, and true character of places.

 

Stars Rise in the East: Like the biblical star, ‘new’ destinations will predominantly rise in the east. Scenic, culturally intriguing, and relatively undiscovered destinations abound from Eastern Europe to central Asia; and they are gearing up for tourism. Kazakhstan's investment in tourism over the last few years appears to be bearing fruit, with growth at +c.22%. Hiking tour operators are falling over themselves to promote Georgia as the latest uncharted destination, which grew at +c.11% last year. Still relatively ‘undiscovered’ by western visitors, scenically dramatic, culturally rich, with an interesting east-west blend of cuisine, and friendly, Georgia will be one of 2019’s rising stars.

 

Rekindling the Romance: Lesser-known islands will grab visitors’ attention in 2019, for winter sun, adventure, wildlife, and dinner party kudos. Cabo Verde, which has invested heavily in new hotels, grew +c. 8% in 2018. Reunion grew at +c.9%. The Azores have cranked up promotion of their remote appeals. And Sao Tome and Principe, which have been dubbed “Africa’s Galapagos”, are beginning to make their mark as an exotic, wildlife destination. And, after years of being accessible only by a 5-day journey by boat, St Helena now has a weekly air service from South Africa. Reinforcing the notion that inaccessibility is no bar to popularity, the South Pacific is also growing fast, albeit from a very small base: Tuvalu (+c.36%), Tonga (+c.28%), and Solomon Islands (+c.18%).

 

It would be remiss, as tourism continues to grow exponentially around the world, to ignore the wider implications of this growth. It’s not just the volume, but also the pace, of growth, which is concerning. For instance, it took Vietnam only eight years to reach 13 million arrivals, whereas Thailand took 25 years to go from 6 million to 15 million ***.

 

More than ever before, destinations need to commit to managing growth sustainably. Otherwise there is a serious risk of killing the tourism goose that lays the golden economic development egg. Established destinations are struggling to achieve this. But ‘new’ destinations have an opportunity to learn from mistakes made by others and build a sustainable visitor economy from the start, before their honeymoon is over. Time will tell.

 

 

* UNWTO World Tourism Barometer (Jan 2109)

** Finding Friends subindex, Ease of Settling In Index 2017 https://www.indy100.com/article/countries-making-friends-friendliness-index-expat-travel-settling-in-immigration-2017-ranking-brexit-8092416 

*** http://www.ttgasia.com/2018/05/16/vietnams-crazy-growth-keeps-hotel-investors-guessing/ 

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